I coached competitive soccer for 25 years, and I had to train myself out of deciding too early where a player belonged.
I remember this tall, athletic kid specifically. I watched him, and, in the first twenty minutes of a tryout, I just knew he was going to be a goalkeeper.
And from that point on, without realizing it, I'd watch him through that lens. Every time he read a play well or used his size, I filed it as confirmation.
Every time he showed creativity with the ball at his feet — something that might have made him a dominant center back or even a striker — I either didn't register it or explained it away. I wasn't doing it consciously, but I was building a case rather than getting an accurate read.
I was falling into the trap of confirmation bias: the tendency to search for, favor, and remember information that confirms what we already believe. Our brains are wired to process the world efficiently, which means building mental models quickly and defending them fiercely.
The problem is that in leadership, efficiency of belief is often the enemy of accuracy.
Why Intelligence Makes This Worse
Psychologist Raymond Nickerson, who spent decades studying confirmation bias, found that higher cognitive ability doesn't protect you from it. It just makes you better at rationalizing the conclusion you've already reached.
Intelligent people are more skilled at constructing arguments, which means they're also more skilled at building airtight cases for ideas. (Ideas that happen to be wrong.) You don't need someone else to confirm your bias. You can do it yourself, thoroughly.
Researchers Ziva Kunda and Peter Ditto independently documented what they called "motivated reasoning" — the process by which people unconsciously adjust their standards of evidence based on the conclusion they want to reach. When we want something to be true, we ask ourselves, "Can I believe this?" rather than "Should I believe this?"
What It Looks Like in Practice
I've sat in meetings where I was already certain what the right call was before anyone spoke. In hindsight, I steered the conversation — not overtly or dishonestly, but subtly — toward the data that supported where I wanted to land.
I asked sharper questions of the information that challenged me. I moved past the information that agreed with me quickly, because it felt obvious.
It gets all of us, no matter how smart or experienced we are. None of us is immune.
I see it everywhere in entrepreneurship. You believe a market is ready for your offer, so you weigh every positive signal heavily and attribute every negative signal to flukes. If there’s a pattern, you convince yourself it’s not as bad as it seems.
You believe a team member isn't cut out for a role, so you notice every misstep and gloss over the wins. You believe a strategy is working, so you extend your timeline rather than scrutinizing the approach.
What makes this especially hard to catch is that strong leaders are often right.
Most of the time, your instincts do point you in a good direction. That’s what makes the bias dangerous — because assumptions start feeling a lot like facts when you’re right all the time.
3 Things That Defend Against Confirmation Bias
First, designate a specific person to argue the opposing case at key decision-making moments. Think of it as your own professional devil’s advocate looking to poke holes in your best assumptions and shatter any rose-colored glasses.
Second, track prediction accuracy over time. When you log what you expected to happen and then compare it to what happened, you accumulate honest data about where your judgment is reliable and where it drifts. Uncomfortable, yes, but helpful.
Lastly, learn to notice when feedback feels satisfying. If someone's input confirms exactly what you already thought, stop yourself. If you feel automatically good about your own ideas and assumptions, that’s a sign to press harder against them.
The Challenge
It’s hard when we’re running businesses and teams. People naturally want to please those leading them, which can inadvertently attract yes-men.
If you’re worried you’ve been falling into confirmation-bias traps, just like I have, here’s what I want you to do.
Pick one decision you're currently sitting on — a hire, a strategy, a market bet. Write down the three strongest arguments against the direction you want to go. You’re not necessarily trying to talk yourself out of it, but to find out whether you can.
If you struggle to come up with valid counterarguments, bingo. You found your blind spot.
What's your method for pressure-testing your assumptions? I want to hear your approach in the comments.